GLOBSEC 2016 Summary - Day 2

KEYNOTE: ON THE FRONTLINE OF WAR

Jordanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Judeh, has drawn a daunting picture of the nature of the challenges that the Middle East has gone through during the course of past years. The rise of regional instability, the civil war in Syria and the re-emergence of extremism have brought the region once again to the frontline of war and global terrorism. Minister Judeh defined the magnitude of the challenges by calling the current fight on terrorism and extremism as the Third World War by other means. Within this world, Islam is being used to advocate indefensible violence. In essence, there is an ongoing civil war within Islam, pushing the majority of Muslims into the corner. In order to match the scale of the challenge and to produce enduring solutions a comprehensive and holistic approach to the stabilisation process must be taken. Minister Judeh has stated that despite the obvious problems, there are signs of hope represented by the modest improvement of the security situation in Libya and by the aversion of further regress in Syria and Yemen. While Jordan will continue to live up to its defining values and provide refuge to people in need, the Minister stated that given the truly global scope of the challenge a genuine global solution should constitute the path toward regional stability.
 
“Refugees are no longer our problem; it is everyone’s problem“
“I would describe terrorism and extremism as the Third World War by other means”

SYRIA TURMOIL: SEEKING THE SILVER BULLET

Since 2011, Syria has been experiencing a period of historical crisis. With the end of the civil war clearly out of sight, the expert panel concluded that while the territorial presence of Daesh in Syria has considerably reduced, the organisation remains the key destructive factor on the ground. NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow stated that the Alliance may have a role to play in solving the Syrian crisis by assisting its members and partners in the region in policy making. With the Russian intervention preventing the fall of the Assad regime, the West has been struggling to match the level of involvement in the crisis. Given the bitter geopolitical outcome of previous interventions in Iraq and Libya, the US are reluctant to commit to complex expeditionary operations. With Western powers lowering their footprint in the region, Russia reasserted its interests in the Middle East via its muscular involvement in the Syrian crisis. While 2016 may be an important year in defeating Daesh, there are severe obstacles to be addressed. Admittedly, defeating Daesh will require considerably more effort than what the West has been providing to date, however, as NATO Deputy Secretary-General Vershbow stated, the ultimate solution of the crisis must originate in the region itself. However, before the conditions for stability materialise, turbulence is to remain the key defining feature of the Middle East.
 
 Alexander Vershbow on ending the crisis in Syria:
“It doesn't have to be the West who saves the Middle East, the Middle East should be able to save itself”
 
 

BREXIT OR BREMAIN? DAVID LIDINGTON, UK MINISTER FOR EUROPE

David Lidington, the United Kingdom’s Minister for Europe, started the discussion by highlighting some of the numerous threats facing Europe and, in turn, are shaping the British public perception of the possible ‘Brexit’. For example, he noted how the escalation of the migrant and refugee crisis in summer 2015 shifted support towards Brexit.  Mr Lidington argued that a Brexit would be a destabilising factor for both the UK and for the remainder of the EU. For the UK, the possibility of erecting a border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would undermine the post-conflict reconciliation, while for the rest of the EU it would be a significant blow at a time when Europe is facing serious economic and security challenges. Mr Lidington concluded that Britain can be happy inside the European Union (EU) on the basis of mutual respect and, therefore a focus on ‘differentiated integration’ rather than a single destination of an ‘ever closer union’.
 
David Lidington on Brexit:
"There is no alternative to EU membership - no credible answer given by the Leave campaigners"
 
"Europe's foreign policy and security capacity would be weakened because you'd be taking out one of its biggest diplomatic and military players”
 

DE-FRAGMENTING EUROPE, BATTLES TO BE WON

Europe has been going through a period of numerous crises: the economic crisis, the refugee crisis and a certain form of political crisis. All three crises have a common defining feature: a fundamental lack of solidarity among member states. In addition, European unity is being tested by the upcoming referendum on the UK membership in the Union – potentially leading to Brexit. Without an effective common foreign policy, Europe cannot even manage its own internal challenges. In tackling the crisis circle Europe has been enclosed in, political and societal leaders must win the souls of European citizens and reenergize the public trust in its own values. European unity is tested by the existence of different levels ofintegration within the Union. Without a sustained trend reversal, the EU could be challenged by an increasingly assertive Russia and by the unpredictability of developments in the Middle East. At the societal level, political leaders should disprove the populist notion that Europe has been run by cosmopolitan elite which no longer is able to lead and willing to listen its constituencies.

 
Danuta Hubner on the future of European reform:
“From institutional perspective, the major issue remains to win the souls of citizens“
 
Carl Bildt on leadership:
“We are left with Berlin; not by choice but by the default of others“